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What happned to the mineral markets?

Author
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#21 - 2012-05-01 15:35:19 UTC
Casius Omega wrote:
actually burn jita is exactly responsible for this. Anyone with half a brain was not buying and moving minerals in jita. This cause mineral demand over the weekend to plumit and things just were not selling. This cause people to constantly keep undercutting each other trying to sell which in turn reduced the price enough and freaked people out who had stockpiles into selling there piles. Prices will go up soon once people stop panicking. By all means keep dropping zydrine so i can buy another 20b at 1000 a unit.


More or less this. The volume on not only minerals but practically the whole damn market the 27th-30th tells the tale. Virtually everything was getting bought less, and without the upward pressure, things tumbled.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Stonkeep
Osmanli Empire
#22 - 2012-05-01 15:36:14 UTC
How could Burn Jita event be responsible for mineral prices to crash ? Is isn't suppose to be the other way around ?

People not being able to move in/out minerals from Jita == less minerals in the market
Most people avoiding Jita and going smaller trade hubs to trade == stocks depleted faster
destroyed haulers carrying minerals == less minerals
destroyed ships == more demand for minerals

Correct me if I am wrong but Burn Jita should not and could not be responsible for crash on mineral prices.
Damien Sahl
Arkhon Enterprises
#23 - 2012-05-01 16:28:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Damien Sahl
Vince Snetterton wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
minerals nosedived because anyone trying to get them out of jita this week would have gotten ganked


I don't believe that is accurate.
Sure, moving freighters in and out of Jita was death on Thurs-Sun, but I moved one in Sun night, and out Monday morning.
Plus the mineral crash happened Monday.

Further, the mins that took the biggest hit are high end mins that are not moved in such bulk.


Higher demand items like trit had huge price spikes on the weekend but people trying to push there sell orders on higher priced items and commodities took huge price dips as people were not buying.

The price spike on Monday makes perfect sense because most of us went back to jita on Sunday.... Placing items on the market for Monday....

Edit: typing on smartphones suck
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#24 - 2012-05-01 16:34:32 UTC
Stonkeep wrote:
How could Burn Jita event be responsible for mineral prices to crash ? Is isn't suppose to be the other way around ?

People not being able to move in/out minerals from Jita == less minerals in the market
Most people avoiding Jita and going smaller trade hubs to trade == stocks depleted faster
destroyed haulers carrying minerals == less minerals
destroyed ships == more demand for minerals

Correct me if I am wrong but Burn Jita should not and could not be responsible for crash on mineral prices.


People being unable or unwilling to move minerals out of jita meant no one was buying.
Existing stockpilers, mostly of high ends, getting antsy meant they kept undercutting or dumping.
Thus, the price on high ends tumbled.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Atreyu Bayne
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#25 - 2012-05-01 16:44:22 UTC
Stonkeep wrote:
How could Burn Jita event be responsible for mineral prices to crash ? Is isn't suppose to be the other way around ?

People not being able to move in/out minerals from Jita == less minerals in the market
Most people avoiding Jita and going smaller trade hubs to trade == stocks depleted faster
destroyed haulers carrying minerals == less minerals
destroyed ships == more demand for minerals

Correct me if I am wrong but Burn Jita should not and could not be responsible for crash on mineral prices.



People did not BUY minerals that day from SELL orders, business in jita was put at a standstill. In the case of zydrine that means people saw prices decrease due to undercuts, etc. and so they started to panic sell to the BUY orders. If you bothered to look at other trade hubs during this time (rens/amarr) you'd see the prices on zydrine either stayed about the same or went UP.

What you are failing to see is that the crash is TEMPORARY due to a blockade. Look at the prices and you'll see business and trade in jita is starting to resume, thus people are replacing ships/mods destroyed that day, and prices are now on the upward swing.

But remember that some people already have huge stockpiles of minerals, and can easily be drawing from these resources to manufacture and trade, rather than the open market, thus why the increase in prices are slow but steady.
Casius Omega
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#26 - 2012-05-02 12:40:23 UTC
they freaking skyrocketed thats what happen literly in 1 day.

i feel bad to those that sold stockpiles
Pinstar Colton
Sweet Asteroid Acres
#27 - 2012-05-02 13:00:12 UTC
Casius Omega wrote:
they freaking skyrocketed thats what happen literly in 1 day.

i feel bad to those that sold stockpiles


Hulkageddon takes its toll.


...though ironically this is probably from gankers needing to replace their gankmobiles moreso than miners needing to replace their hulks. Last I heard, gank ships have skyrocketed in price leading manufacturers to gobble up minerals in an attempt to fill the demand.

In the cat-and-mouse game that is low sec, there is no shame in learning to be a better mouse.

Dalden V
Yellow Lounge Industries
#28 - 2012-05-02 15:08:41 UTC
Interestingly, Amarr Fuel blocks went up in price right after the Burn Jita event. I head to re-fuel a tower and noticed that buying just from the sell orders my fuel would have been double than it was a few days ago. This might have been only a temporary situation though - maybe a bunch of pos owners were couldn't buy their fuel and when Burn Jita was over they depleted the blocks on Jita.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#29 - 2012-05-02 15:34:15 UTC
Dalden V wrote:
Interestingly, Amarr Fuel blocks went up in price right after the Burn Jita event. I head to re-fuel a tower and noticed that buying just from the sell orders my fuel would have been double than it was a few days ago. This might have been only a temporary situation though - maybe a bunch of pos owners were couldn't buy their fuel and when Burn Jita was over they depleted the blocks on Jita.


More likely, isotopes have risen in price in anticipation of Hulkageddon and this translated into increased fuel block price.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Claire Voyant
#30 - 2012-05-02 15:54:26 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Dalden V wrote:
Interestingly, Amarr Fuel blocks went up in price right after the Burn Jita event. I head to re-fuel a tower and noticed that buying just from the sell orders my fuel would have been double than it was a few days ago. This might have been only a temporary situation though - maybe a bunch of pos owners were couldn't buy their fuel and when Burn Jita was over they depleted the blocks on Jita.


More likely, isotopes have risen in price in anticipation of Hulkageddon and this translated into increased fuel block price.

Not by double though. I think fuel blocks are still a niche market since they are so easy for POS owners to make for themselves. So I am not surprised if the supply of Amarr fuel blocks in Jita was pretty much depleted during Burn Jita even if the supply of the component elements, including isotopes, were still plentiful. Isotopes have not really responded to Hulkageddon yet, although I'm sure there was some anticipatory speculation.
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#31 - 2012-05-02 15:54:52 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
minerals nosedived because anyone trying to get them out of jita this week would have gotten ganked

not sure 28 freighters and 280 industrials could significally change amount of traded minerals in Jita

The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"

Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#32 - 2012-05-02 15:58:23 UTC
March rabbit wrote:
not sure 28 freighters and 280 industrials could significally change amount of traded minerals in Jita


I suspect it's the ones that stayed away that made the difference - 28 freighters (or however many it was) might have popped but 280 freighters could have stayed away.

The latest dev blog gives a very nice indication in the drop of market orders over the weekend.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#33 - 2012-05-02 16:07:40 UTC
57 freighters including the ones destroyed in surrounding systems thanks to population caps. But yeah, the fear of getting ganked was definitely exceeded by the actual ganks as far as direct market impact.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

VaMei
Meafi Corp
#34 - 2012-05-02 17:38:17 UTC
Tekota wrote:
March rabbit wrote:
not sure 28 freighters and 280 industrials could significally change amount of traded minerals in Jita


I suspect it's the ones that stayed away that made the difference - 28 freighters (or however many it was) might have popped but 280 freighters could have stayed away.


No doubt there. I normally make 5-8 fully loaded runs over a weekend, but my freighter sat this one out.

This was interdiction by threat rather than by action. If the goal was to see how many ships they could blow up, they'd have been camping Uedama & Niarja, and they wouldn't have given us a months warning it was going to happen.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#35 - 2012-05-02 17:56:57 UTC
VaMei wrote:
Tekota wrote:
March rabbit wrote:
not sure 28 freighters and 280 industrials could significally change amount of traded minerals in Jita


I suspect it's the ones that stayed away that made the difference - 28 freighters (or however many it was) might have popped but 280 freighters could have stayed away.


No doubt there. I normally make 5-8 fully loaded runs over a weekend, but my freighter sat this one out.

This was interdiction by threat rather than by action. If the goal was to see how many ships they could blow up, they'd have been camping Uedama & Niarja, and they wouldn't have given us a months warning it was going to happen.


Mostly just that last part. Blink

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Hammer Crendraven
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#36 - 2012-05-10 11:33:53 UTC
So we are saying then that there are far more minerals in traders hands that what the market can use. I would hazard a guess that we have maybe 5 months mineral supply owned by traders. Perhaps that was the trigger event for Hulkageddon.
Alexis Valentyne
Anacorn Contracts Agency
#37 - 2012-05-10 12:33:07 UTC
Around 5.5m was selling at 1250 per unit and I couldn't decide whether to go for it or not and take a risk. Two minutes later they were all gone. Whether someone took them or the seller got scared and cancelled the order, I'll never know. Either way, I'm kicking myself.

I seem to smell the stench of appeasement in the air.

Ravenclaw2kk
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#38 - 2012-05-10 12:54:00 UTC
Alexis Valentyne wrote:
Around 5.5m was selling at 1250 per unit and I couldn't decide whether to go for it or not and take a risk. Two minutes later they were all gone. Whether someone took them or the seller got scared and cancelled the order, I'll never know. Either way, I'm kicking myself.


there are still around 1/4 million units up for that price. Judging the bottom on this one is going to be difficult. But by looking at the daily traded volume, we are pre-spescelation volumes and so the market seems to be bottoming out.
Alexis Valentyne
Anacorn Contracts Agency
#39 - 2012-05-10 12:58:41 UTC
Yeah, just saw that, but I ended up finding myself a seller Blink.

I seem to smell the stench of appeasement in the air.

Debiru
Universal Fleet Operations
#40 - 2012-05-10 16:55:08 UTC
Burn Jita didn't result in the mineral price drop abroad. Mineral prices may have gone down some inside Jita, but not by much. Remember that most of the minerals in sale in Jita come from elsewhere. Therefor, Burn Jita might cause a temporary drop in prices, but then Jita prices would adjust back upwards to match the three other market hubs that were not targeted during the Burn. During Burn Jita, Dodixie mineral prices really had no change whatsoever, and prices only started to go down yesterday.

Isotope prices have fluctuated due to Hulkageddon, yes. They spiked in price right after Hulkageddon's implementation was announced being set in stone - That it would, in fact, take place. Local topes have gone down a bit since the initial spike, but foreign ones are still up in Dodixie. I think this is due to a lack of isotope traders. Everyone trades up to Jita, but trade in Isotopes between the three other hubs seems to be down.
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