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OH god,.... the morphite!!

First post
Author
Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#21 - 2012-03-30 00:22:25 UTC
Wonder if that was before or after they found out the distortion effect of drone poo?

I find it hard to believe that the under 5% of the population that lives in w-space could impact the market in any major way when compared to what drone poo was doing to the market.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#22 - 2012-03-30 00:35:23 UTC  |  Edited by: corestwo
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Wonder if that was before or after they found out the distortion effect of drone poo?

I find it hard to believe that the under 5% of the population that lives in w-space could impact the market in any major way when compared to what drone poo was doing to the market.


They weren't necessarily arguing that people who lived in wormholes permanently were the problem, so much as empire dwellers who would venture into easily accessed low-end wormholes, spend the day mining the ABC found within (thus the name daytripping) and leave. These are people to whom even the vastly depressed prices of ABC (compared to the days of old) is a bonanza, because they're used to considering pyroxeres or whatever to be a high end ore.

In any case this would have been CSM 6, so they were well aware of the effect of drone regions, they just felt that daytripping was a non-trivial source as well.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Mr Blue
The Legion of Spoon
Curatores Veritatis Alliance
#23 - 2012-03-30 02:00:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Mr Blue
bit ealie to scream WH nerf isnt it? I mean something been up for suggested in a CSM isnt even remoterly close to a done deal.(its lituarlly 100 of suggestetions beening suggested in there) Its even been like a year since it was up for suggestion and they didnt do anything about it.

Even if they where to impliment the nerf(which I doubt they are) they would wait out several mothns + to see how the drone nerf works out on the market before going any futher.

So good luck waiting for a 1-2 years (what my experince tells me are the fastest timeframe your looking at if they accually do it). But then again speculation is sometimes a bigger factor than accually market changes. VOV
Adunh Slavy
#24 - 2012-03-30 02:20:38 UTC
Nocx is an important mineral in T3 production, so would not be surprised to see 'low sec' ores in C1s.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Darius III
Interstellar eXodus
The Initiative.
#25 - 2012-04-13 09:47:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Darius III
VaMei wrote:
Mr Blue wrote:
I dont see mophine taking a huge hit as it can easly be supplyed from regular mining.(in 0.0)


In order to mine Merc, you need to fit Deep Core or Modulated Deep Core miners, nerfing your yield for any other ore. Any mining character that's trained Deep Core Mining can choose to fit the modules, but at recent prices no one's gonna consider Merc if there's ABC to be found.
Once prices do balance out and Merc is profitable over ABC, you need miners that are skilled to do it, and have access to the lowest True Sec areas of space to even find it.



Not only that-but only a Skiff mines Mercoxit effectively-getting a 300% bonus to Mercoxit crystals at level V. I have seen maybe 1 or 2 skiffs in the last few years living in 0.0

Back when Morphite was only mined-before drone drops were ever in the game-T2 production levels were much lower than they are now. T2 production has increased several fold and drone drops make up 80% or more of the current supply. Of all the mineral price spikes-only Morphite will go up and stay up in value IMO. There may be some spikes and dips, but in the long run, Morphite could easily go to, and stay at 20K ISK/PU and up. I think that when current supplies run out, and speculators have sold their hordes, you will see baseline prices that go up week after week to 20K+ and may even see spikes of up to 50K and more.


Production will not be able to meet demand even if all the Mercoxit in the game is mined every day I think. With vastly increased demand since 2006 and almost all commonly utilized supplies (drone drops) soon to be removed from game, I think that Mercoxit will be by far, the most valuable ore to mine, but we will see. D3

Hmmm

Scrapyard Bob
EVE University
Ivy League
#26 - 2012-04-13 13:07:14 UTC
Can you check numbers with some Mercx mining lads (or lasses)?

According to EFT, a modestly-fit Skiff pulls in about 824 m3/minute (180 sec cycles). Which is 20.6 units/minute (40 m3/u) or 43.7 units/minute (2620/hr). Boosts from gang links / implants / leadership bonuses / Orca / Rorqual should push that up closer to 1400 m3/minute, or about 4400 units/hr.

Assuming 4200 units/hr of Morphite, we get:

ISK/u = ISK/hr
10k = 42.0M/hr
13k = 54.6M/hr
15k = 63.0M/hr
20k = 84.0M/hr
25k = 105.0M/hr
30k = 126.0M/hr

Which is why I question when someone says "Morphite will go to more then 25k/hr long-term". It seems that, if Morphite goes much above 15-20k that it will be the darling of null-sec and everyone and their cousin will be out mining Mercoxite in skiffs.
Shalaava
SlashCry
#27 - 2012-04-13 13:35:28 UTC
Scrapyard Bob wrote:
Which is why I question when someone says "Morphite will go to more then 25k/hr long-term". It seems that, if Morphite goes much above 15-20k that it will be the darling of null-sec and everyone and their cousin will be out mining Mercoxite in skiffs.


Your numbers are reasonably correct, but they represent constant, uninterrupted mining. I've never done Mercoxit mining myself and would welcome input from anyone more informed on the subject, but it's my understanding that finding concentrated Mercoxit ore supplies in practically unlimited numbers is quite rare which will inevitably bring down those numbers a great deal.

While I do find the ~30k high end estimates ludicrous, something in the neighborhood of 15-20k (corresponding to 60-85M/hr on paper) seems plausible given the scarcity of supply. It doesn't seem like people will just be able to multibox a bunch of Skiffs 24/7 pulling in those numbers, so for Mercoxit to be worth paying attention to at all, the nominal isk/hr will have to be considerably higher than that obtained from clearing ABC-heavy industrial upgrade belts, which you can scale up as much as you want.
slickboy Danny
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#28 - 2012-04-13 14:13:09 UTC
also, if I may add the following to the equation, seeing the current prices for just about everything on the market, 126 mil/hr for about 2 hrs a day doesnt seem all that outrageous. as stated before, mercoxit rocks aren't that common, considering the fact you need the higher end upgraded belts for limited supplies of mercoxit. besides, look at the insane ammounts of isk to be made with incursions. didnt seem fair when that got introduced, now it's as common as blitzing lvl IV's pre-incursion. add to that the ever-climbing rmt prizes in the form of PLEX and I'd say we are simply looking at a crazy inflation in all markets. in that sense, 1 bil these days is effectively worth less than 500 mil 1 year ago or so. so the question shouldnt be whether or not 30k p/u is too much for mercoxit, but when the rest of the professions will follow up on the 2.0 payouts we see being introduced these days.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#29 - 2012-04-13 14:26:46 UTC
Darius III wrote:
VaMei wrote:
Mr Blue wrote:
I dont see mophine taking a huge hit as it can easly be supplyed from regular mining.(in 0.0)


In order to mine Merc, you need to fit Deep Core or Modulated Deep Core miners, nerfing your yield for any other ore. Any mining character that's trained Deep Core Mining can choose to fit the modules, but at recent prices no one's gonna consider Merc if there's ABC to be found.
Once prices do balance out and Merc is profitable over ABC, you need miners that are skilled to do it, and have access to the lowest True Sec areas of space to even find it.



Not only that-but only a Skiff mines Mercoxit effectively-getting a 300% bonus to Mercoxit crystals at level V. I have seen maybe 1 or 2 skiffs in the last few years living in 0.0

Back when Morphite was only mined-before drone drops were ever in the game-T2 production levels were much lower than they are now. T2 production has increased several fold and drone drops make up 80% or more of the current supply. Of all the mineral price spikes-only Morphite will go up and stay up in value IMO. There may be some spikes and dips, but in the long run, Morphite could easily go to, and stay at 20K ISK/PU and up. I think that when current supplies run out, and speculators have sold their hordes, you will see baseline prices that go up week after week to 20K+ and may even see spikes of up to 50K and more.


Production will not be able to meet demand even if all the Mercoxit in the game is mined every day I think. With vastly increased demand since 2006 and almost all commonly utilized supplies (drone drops) soon to be removed from game, I think that Mercoxit will be by far, the most valuable ore to mine, but we will see. D3


Counterpoint: Mining anomalies are a thing now, they will be used now, and stripping it dry to force it to respawn will include stripping out the mercoxit.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

velox
Silver Guardians
#30 - 2012-04-14 07:49:32 UTC
Morphite might spike a bit but i dont see this as a major problem, 4 or 5 years ago it sat in the high 30k per unit.

Yes its used in production but only in limited numbers, it doesnt hold a big sway over the items final selling price like say nanotransistors going from 1500isk a unit 5 years ago to the 8k a unit it is today. (currently the biggest cost factor in t2 ships)

Certainly nothing worth speculating billions on. over the past year its averaged about 2 million units sold a day in jita until the last weeks speculating where the price has spiked.

Take a damnation BPC it needs 300 units of morphite so at todays prices 5 mill isk if it trebled to 54k per unit thats only a 10 mill increase in the end cost. I doubt many would blink an eye at a 10 mill increase on a 250 mill hull.

V.
shar'ra matcevsovski
Doomheim
#31 - 2012-04-14 09:24:49 UTC
-Hemmo read about the zydrine bubble some time ago
-Hemmo felt genius and thought he should copy the exact same thing 3 weeks later and create a morphite bubble
-Hemmo failed at giving convincingly reasons why morphite should become that rare

...what happened in this Thread

shar'ra phone home

slickboy Danny
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#32 - 2012-04-14 10:08:14 UTC
shar'ra matcevsovski wrote:
-Hemmo read about the zydrine bubble some time ago
-Hemmo felt genius and thought he should copy the exact same thing 3 weeks later and create a morphite bubble
-Hemmo failed at giving convincingly reasons why morphite should become that rare

...what happened in this Thread


Derp
slickboy Danny
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#33 - 2012-04-14 10:27:49 UTC
morphite passed ze 18k now. what was that about a zydrine bubble? I say we pass the 20 with ease this weekend, then drop back down due to firesale panic (which I am very thankful for) and then the only way is Up! what a beautiful day...
LoBlo Fet
Terra-Formers
#34 - 2012-04-14 12:55:48 UTC  |  Edited by: LoBlo Fet
Hemmo Paskiainen wrote:
T1 refine loot table nerf


Meta zero refines don't produce morphite
Hemmo Paskiainen
#35 - 2012-04-14 16:58:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Hemmo Paskiainen
shar'ra matcevsovski wrote:
-Hemmo read about the zydrine bubble some time ago
-Hemmo felt genius and thought he should copy the exact same thing 3 weeks later and create a morphite bubble
-Hemmo failed at giving convincingly reasons why morphite should become that rare

...what happened in this Thread


tbh in rl i am a genius, skipped 4 classed, got 2 degrees allready & only 1 yr to go before im master in business mangament, economics and marketing. I un fortualy belong to the top 1% of ppl that is simply smarter.. not that it is something that i wish to other ppl, its more a pain than a gain.

anyhow, ppl were allready buying up so lets call it a strategic move to prevent hugh stocks to be hamstered. therefor i love all the ppl that scream that it isnt going up more while ppl at sametime saying it is. this prevents ppl from taking the risk or gamble. result is lesser hamstered & sooner i can sell my stuff when prices are more stable by supply & demand.

next lesson isnt free

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#36 - 2012-04-14 17:17:56 UTC
Hemmo Paskiainen wrote:
shar'ra matcevsovski wrote:
-Hemmo read about the zydrine bubble some time ago
-Hemmo felt genius and thought he should copy the exact same thing 3 weeks later and create a morphite bubble
-Hemmo failed at giving convincingly reasons why morphite should become that rare

...what happened in this Thread


tbh in rl i am a genius, skipped 4 classed, got 2 degrees allready & only 1 yr to go before im master in business mangament, economics and marketing. I un fortualy belong to the top 1% of ppl that is simply smarter.. not that it is something that i wish to other ppl, its more a pain than a gain.

anyhow, ppl were allready buying up so lets call it a strategic move to prevent hugh stocks to be hamstered. therefor i love all the ppl that scream that it isnt going up more while ppl at sametime saying it is. this prevents ppl from taking the risk or gamble. result is lesser hamstered & sooner i can sell my stuff when prices are more stable by supply & demand.

next lesson isnt free


for a supposed genius you type like a three year old with downs.


ps, shoulda crunched the numbers on the actual value of three degrees.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Hemmo Paskiainen
#37 - 2012-04-14 17:30:23 UTC
well not everyone it native english speaking. only fools think that in a internetz spazeship game. imaging ccp only assuming everyone speaks icelandic...than we would all be speaking some strange viking langish or even better... not playing eve at all

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

J'J'J'Jita
Ch'Ch'Ch'Chia Corp
#38 - 2012-04-14 17:45:12 UTC
Darius III wrote:

Back when Morphite was only mined-before drone drops were ever in the game-T2 production levels were much lower than they are now. T2 production has increased several fold and drone drops make up 80% or more of the current supply. Of all the mineral price spikes-only Morphite will go up and stay up in value IMO. There may be some spikes and dips, but in the long run, Morphite could easily go to, and stay at 20K ISK/PU and up. I think that when current supplies run out, and speculators have sold their hordes, you will see baseline prices that go up week after week to 20K+ and may even see spikes of up to 50K and more.


If a CSM member says 20k is the new minimum and that number relies on constant, uninterrupted mining in _nullsec_ (haha?)... yeah I'd say 20k will be a minimum value. 25-30 seems more likely.
Javajunky
Tech Builds
Pandemic Horde
#39 - 2012-04-15 01:12:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Javajunky
Darius III wrote:
VaMei wrote:
Mr Blue wrote:
I dont see mophine taking a huge hit as it can easly be supplyed from regular mining.(in 0.0)


In order to mine Merc, you need to fit Deep Core or Modulated Deep Core miners, nerfing your yield for any other ore. Any mining character that's trained Deep Core Mining can choose to fit the modules, but at recent prices no one's gonna consider Merc if there's ABC to be found.
Once prices do balance out and Merc is profitable over ABC, you need miners that are skilled to do it, and have access to the lowest True Sec areas of space to even find it.



Not only that-but only a Skiff mines Mercoxit effectively-getting a 300% bonus to Mercoxit crystals at level V. I have seen maybe 1 or 2 skiffs in the last few years living in 0.0

Back when Morphite was only mined-before drone drops were ever in the game-T2 production levels were much lower than they are now. T2 production has increased several fold and drone drops make up 80% or more of the current supply. Of all the mineral price spikes-only Morphite will go up and stay up in value IMO. There may be some spikes and dips, but in the long run, Morphite could easily go to, and stay at 20K ISK/PU and up. I think that when current supplies run out, and speculators have sold their hordes, you will see baseline prices that go up week after week to 20K+ and may even see spikes of up to 50K and more.


Production will not be able to meet demand even if all the Mercoxit in the game is mined every day I think. With vastly increased demand since 2006 and almost all commonly utilized supplies (drone drops) soon to be removed from game, I think that Mercoxit will be by far, the most valuable ore to mine, but we will see. D3


Blah blah blah, I don't know a damn thing about mining, but I like seeing myself post because I have convinced enough morons to vote me into CSM and that icon looks cool... << shoves CSM down proverbial flight of stairs for being an idiot >>

Bottom line, getting into a skiff is not that hard if you can already use an exhumer, what like 4 days to fit T2 Mercoxit Crystal and Deep Core mIning, 70 mil to buy and fit one. None of this is a bottleneck. Had you actually had a clue, you'd be giving credit to CCP for increasing the Mercoxit available in the XL grav site from 15K to 45K, this is where all the morphite will come from. So the real bottleneck will be Alliances (eh hem get a real one) and getting thier sov acts together getting systems upgraded to get access to the grav sties. Alliances will have to stop treating miners like the red headed step children.

Merc will definitely go above 25K per unit and stay there for sometime, if you're not a moron, you're going to be looking at the industry levels on the CCP maps to track how long price support will stay in the 25-30K range, I would speculate you'll see that range for 6-9 months because (a) people getting back to mining; (b) a lot of sov changed hands and much needs to be upgraded by the new owner alliances; (c) alliances need to change their attitudes about indutrial corps being in their space. Basically you have an alliance problem not a mining problem.

Best Regards,
Java...

Because mining is what the cool kids do...
pmchem
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#40 - 2012-04-16 18:21:45 UTC
Javajunky wrote:
So the real bottleneck will be Alliances (eh hem get a real one) and getting thier sov acts together getting systems upgraded to get access to the grav sties. Alliances will have to stop treating miners like the red headed step children.


I hear sigma is already racing against theta to see who can run the most mining ops

a sad day

https://twitter.com/pmchem/ || http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/community-spotlight-garpa/ || Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal