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3 Reasons why Trit is going to go higher than anyone expects.

Author
JD Rocketfeller
Rocket Equity
#1 - 2012-04-08 06:21:40 UTC  |  Edited by: JD Rocketfeller
1) T1 meta 0 loot is getting removed. Look at the reprocessing mineral values of mission loot. Meta 0 loot, the loot that will no longer be dropped, refines into 50-100% more trit than its higher meta counter parts. 40% of trit comes from reprocessing. In other words, if 50-75% of trit from reprocessing is about to be removed, then the supply of trit is down 20-30% not counting the drone poo removal.

2)Demand coming from new expansion release. Every time a new expansion comes out, subscribers rise, demand rises and so do prices.

3)Hulkageddon - self explanatory.

My prediction - 10 isk trit May 1st, assuming no surprises by CCP
Arthur Frayn
V.O.F.L IRON CORE
#2 - 2012-04-08 06:36:30 UTC
JD Rocketfeller wrote:
1) T1 meta 0 loot is getting removed. Look at the reprocessing mineral values of mission loot. Meta 0 loot, the loot that will no longer be dropped, refines into 50-100% more trit than its higher meta counter parts. 40% of trit comes from reprocessing. In other words, if 50-75% of trit from reprocessing is about to be removed, then the supply of trit is down 20-30% not counting the drone poo removal.

2)Demand coming from new expansion release. Every time a new expansion comes out, subscribers rise, demand rises and so do prices.

3)Hulkageddon - self explanatory.

4) People are starting "Here's why Trit will go through the roof!" threads to feel better about a potentially bad 2 billion unit Trit investment.

My prediction - 10 isk trit May 1st, assuming no surprises by CCP


Fixed.
Kalin Dyse
Wardens of the Ethereal Gate
#3 - 2012-04-08 07:02:50 UTC
Arthur Frayn wrote:
JD Rocketfeller wrote:
1) T1 meta 0 loot is getting removed. Look at the reprocessing mineral values of mission loot. Meta 0 loot, the loot that will no longer be dropped, refines into 50-100% more trit than its higher meta counter parts. 40% of trit comes from reprocessing. In other words, if 50-75% of trit from reprocessing is about to be removed, then the supply of trit is down 20-30% not counting the drone poo removal.

2)Demand coming from new expansion release. Every time a new expansion comes out, subscribers rise, demand rises and so do prices.

3)Hulkageddon - self explanatory.

4) People are starting "Here's why Trit will go through the roof!" threads to feel better about a potentially bad 2 billion unit Trit investment.

5) People regretting their missed chance to get in before the prices spike and then panicking, buying everything still under 10 isk, in fear it may go higher.

My prediction - 10 isk trit May 1st, assuming no surprises by CCP


Fixed.


Fixed

Another reason it may increase is that with other minerals going through the roof people will start mining other ore's that are worth more but contain less trit.
Raven Ether
Doomheim
#4 - 2012-04-08 07:33:20 UTC
We're in for a hell of a ride. Whoever has built up mineral stocks is going to get rich.
Arthur Frayn
V.O.F.L IRON CORE
#5 - 2012-04-08 07:47:13 UTC
Raven Ether wrote:
We're in for a hell of a ride. Whoever has built up mineral stocks is going to get rich.


And as with every buildup there'll be a crash when those minerals flood the market.
Jackie Fisher
Syrkos Technologies
Joint Venture Conglomerate
#6 - 2012-04-08 08:03:50 UTC
JD Rocketfeller wrote:
1) T1 meta 0 loot is getting removed. Look at the reprocessing mineral values of mission loot. Meta 0 loot, the loot that will no longer be dropped, refines into 50-100% more trit than its higher meta counter parts. 40% of trit comes from reprocessing. In other words, if 50-75% of trit from reprocessing is about to be removed, then the supply of trit is down 20-30% not counting the drone poo removal.

Be a little careful with the 40% figure as strictly speaking its from reprocessing modules etc not specifically loot so includes stuff from module compressors.

Fear God and Thread Nought

Mookie Quantico
Doomheim
#7 - 2012-04-08 10:17:07 UTC
I guess y'all missed the rise in Pyerite then... carry on. Blink

Mook
Kira Vanachura
Green Visstick High
#8 - 2012-04-08 12:03:08 UTC
Jackie Fisher wrote:
JD Rocketfeller wrote:
1) T1 meta 0 loot is getting removed. Look at the reprocessing mineral values of mission loot. Meta 0 loot, the loot that will no longer be dropped, refines into 50-100% more trit than its higher meta counter parts. 40% of trit comes from reprocessing. In other words, if 50-75% of trit from reprocessing is about to be removed, then the supply of trit is down 20-30% not counting the drone poo removal.

Be a little careful with the 40% figure as strictly speaking its from reprocessing modules etc not specifically loot so includes stuff from module compressors.

QFT A significant quantity of trit is used to produce modules to compress the trit, which are then shipped to 0.0 and reprocessed.
TomHorn
Level 4s
#9 - 2012-04-08 13:12:24 UTC
Quote:
We're in for a hell of a ride. Whoever has built up mineral stocks is going to get rich


Block Ukx
Caliph Muhammed
Perkone
Caldari State
#10 - 2012-04-08 14:37:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Caliph Muhammed
I agree. There is nothing on the horizon that has a lowering effect on the price of tritanium.

-Anything with a blueprint no longer drops as loot. Higher demand from both the shortfall and the increased manufacturing.

-The new wardec changes will ensure far greater demand. Many traders, miners and manufacturers will face war decs that can not be escaped through dec shield mechanics. And the wardec history will limit how often they flee from it. Too long of a list of losses and you'll be a primary target for every new corporation looking to get it's feet wet in pvp.

-Much more loss in ships and mods with the new mercenary defense options for corporations under war declaration.

-Null changes.

-A current trend upwards with none of the previously mentioned factors.

-Increased activity in general from the new expansion.

-Much more ISK in circulation.

-Bot nuking from CCP.

Buy and hold. It will stabilize eventually but uncertainty of future prices will see more speculators buy as the expansion closes in on release.
Aina Sasaki
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#11 - 2012-04-08 17:09:59 UTC
We probably will see a rise with Tritanium, as with all mineral prices due to all the speculation about the upcoming patch, but I don't think it will be quite as high as 10 simply because Tritanium is incredibly easy to get for anyone. It won't be anything like what Zydrine and Nocxium are turning into right now.

In other words... i'd be careful about putting too much at stake into Tritanium. It might soar... but not for long.

- Rei

Tekota
The Freighter Factory
#12 - 2012-04-08 17:27:59 UTC
Purely for sake of argument rather than any particularly strong feelings either way, may I present reasons why the limit for trit is somewhere below the sky:


  • 1) I just locked in build prices for the next four freighters at 6isk - this alone guarantees trit will tank over the next 24 days.
  • 2) War dec changes are irrelevant, dec shields have only recently been declared non-exploit. A year ago all it took to stomp on small indy corp was 2m isk and a 48 hour wait. With war dec changes all it'll take (if I've read right, and to be fair I've not paid much attention lately) is 20m and a 24 hour wait. Ie. small corps will get stomped on if they are stupid, gobby, or unlucky - which is just as it was a year or so ago.
  • 3) Trit is the easiest and quickest mineral to ramp up production as market forces dictate. Veld is *everywhere* in humongous quantities. Trit is not limited by supply in the slightest, it's only limited by the number of people willing to collect it - and history shows that miners are very, very cheap. We play a game where people - actual real humans - will voluntarily mine *ice* for gods sake.


But mostly, it's reason (1).
Avraham Avinu
Children of Noah
#13 - 2012-04-08 19:07:40 UTC
Aina Sasaki wrote:
We probably will see a rise with Tritanium, as with all mineral prices due to all the speculation about the upcoming patch, but I don't think it will be quite as high as 10 simply because Tritanium is incredibly easy to get for anyone. It won't be anything like what Zydrine and Nocxium are turning into right now.

In other words... i'd be careful about putting too much at stake into Tritanium. It might soar... but not for long.


I don't think that people will put the effort to mine trit and the price will increase and then level off at a price higher than previous because of the opportunity cost of a human mining rather than a bot. Humans would rather mine something more profitable, or do something else more profitable.
FTLENGAGE
FIRESTORM FORCE VXIX
#14 - 2012-04-08 22:04:17 UTC  |  Edited by: FTLENGAGE
Avraham Avinu wrote:
Aina Sasaki wrote:
We probably will see a rise with Tritanium, as with all mineral prices due to all the speculation about the upcoming patch, but I don't think it will be quite as high as 10 simply because Tritanium is incredibly easy to get for anyone. It won't be anything like what Zydrine and Nocxium are turning into right now.

In other words... i'd be careful about putting too much at stake into Tritanium. It might soar... but not for long.


I don't think that people will put the effort to mine trit and the price will increase and then level off at a price higher than previous because of the opportunity cost of a human mining rather than a bot. Humans would rather mine something more profitable, or do something else more profitable.

in empire scord is often one of if not the most profitable ore
Gibbo5771
AQUILA INC
Verge of Collapse
#15 - 2012-04-08 23:23:05 UTC
Just CCP shitting over the little guy as usual.

They seem to make these amazing changes that make the rich, richer and the poor, poorer.

Imagine a new player doing lvl3's in a drake to grind 150mil for a RAVEN or 250mil for a rohk lol. Kinda feel sorry for them.

Playerbase will get wrecked because of this.

Its like real life, everyone goes up in price but the income we get remains the same, unless your filthy rich

Aina Sasaki
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#16 - 2012-04-08 23:34:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Aina Sasaki
Gibbo5771 wrote:
Just CCP shitting over the little guy as usual.

They seem to make these amazing changes that make the rich, richer and the poor, poorer.

Imagine a new player doing lvl3's in a drake to grind 150mil for a RAVEN or 250mil for a rohk lol. Kinda feel sorry for them.

Playerbase will get wrecked because of this.

Its like real life, everyone goes up in price but the income we get remains the same, unless your filthy rich



Really, it just depends on what players choose to do to actually make their ISK. For people who rely on fixed income sources like missions and ratting, these price rises and general inflation is -really- going to suck. But for traders, investors, and, to some extent, manufacturers, the money will continue to flow. You are right however that the richest/oldest players will benefit most from this, but that doesn't mean that newer trader/investor types such as yours truly won't be making a handsome profit from this situation. :)

- Rei

velox
Silver Guardians
Solyaris Chtonium
#17 - 2012-04-08 23:50:28 UTC
The trit problem isn't as bad as you think or isolated. If you watched the eve economy panel at you would have seen that out of all the isk flowing into the eve economy from ratting, incursions, missions etc, only half of it is being spent in ways that take it out of the game.

Until recently comparing income from high sec mining to either incursions or missions just highlighted it to be a very poor cousin. With prices rising mining income per hour will rise and the number of people choosing this as their revenue stream should increase.

I remember when morphite was 40k a unit stuff still got made and sold.

V.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#18 - 2012-04-09 00:10:06 UTC
Gibbo5771 wrote:
Just CCP shitting over the little guy as usual.

They seem to make these amazing changes that make the rich, richer and the poor, poorer.

Imagine a new player doing lvl3's in a drake to grind 150mil for a RAVEN or 250mil for a rohk lol. Kinda feel sorry for them.

Playerbase will get wrecked because of this.

Its like real life, everyone goes up in price but the income we get remains the same, unless your filthy rich



Look up Malcanis Law
Zircon Dasher
#19 - 2012-04-09 00:20:12 UTC
Jackie Fisher wrote:
JD Rocketfeller wrote:
1) T1 meta 0 loot is getting removed. Look at the reprocessing mineral values of mission loot. Meta 0 loot, the loot that will no longer be dropped, refines into 50-100% more trit than its higher meta counter parts. 40% of trit comes from reprocessing. In other words, if 50-75% of trit from reprocessing is about to be removed, then the supply of trit is down 20-30% not counting the drone poo removal.

Be a little careful with the 40% figure as strictly speaking its from reprocessing modules etc not specifically loot so includes stuff from module compressors.



This.

I would also add that meta 0 loot is a shadow of its former self in terms of drop rates. It will have a small, but ultimately unexciting, impact on mineral supply.

Nerfing High-sec is never the answer. It is the question. The answer is 'YES'.

Jan VanRijkdom
House VanRijkdom Trading Conglomerate
#20 - 2012-04-09 03:56:09 UTC
Gibbo5771 wrote:
Just CCP shitting over the little guy as usual.

They seem to make these amazing changes that make the rich, richer and the poor, poorer.

Imagine a new player doing lvl3's in a drake to grind 150mil for a RAVEN or 250mil for a rohk lol. Kinda feel sorry for them.

Playerbase will get wrecked because of this.

Its like real life, everyone goes up in price but the income we get remains the same, unless your filthy rich




Yes, playing the game longer than others and being more clever will often result in having more isk, but whining over inflation is asinine, prices are getting closer to yesteryears prices on some things, the difference is there's more isk floating around. The playerbase wasn't 'wrecked' then, nor will it be now. Get the big boy pants on and figure out how to make some big bucks likenthe rest of us and you'll be able to happily pay market prices.

Anyway. I don't know how long trit can stay above 8.xx-9+ p/u. It will be profitable enough for miners to focus on and flood it back down a bit. Sustained I think 7.Xx is feasible, and it may well spike to 10 for a bit, but I don't see that long term. It will cause a pretty good deal of further inflation as well.

Just my opinion and conjecture, with no particular maths to back anything up.

.

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